COMEX Gold Market Under Pressure: Is a Physical Shortage Brewing?
The COMEX (CME Commodities Exchange) — the central hub for gold, silver, and other commodity futures trading — has seen unusual activity lately. In addition to trading paper futures, COMEX allows buyers to take physical delivery of gold and silver. Recent delivery and inventory data suggest the gold market could be showing early warning signs of major stress.
Record Gold Deliveries and Strange Behavior in April
April 2025 recorded the second-highest gold delivery volume ever, with over 64,500 contracts delivered — valued at approximately $21.3 billion. Typically, futures contracts are either rolled over or settled before delivery. However, this April showed an unprecedented pattern: instead of the expected drop in outstanding contracts before delivery day, a surge occurred.
A massive number of contracts were opened right before delivery — then mysteriously cash-settled instead of resulting in physical gold delivery. This raises questions:
•Was someone testing COMEX’s physical gold reserves?
•Was there a shortage of available gold, leading to large payouts to settle in cash?
The data strongly hints at behind-the-scenes pressure never seen before in the COMEX gold market.
Physical Gold Inventories Are Shrinking
Following the unusual April delivery activity, COMEX vault gold inventories have declined. This suggests that some investors may have negotiated to take physical gold out of the vaults rather than accept cash settlement alone.
Even after this event, immediate delivery demand remained strong, with over 10,000 contracts opened — the second-highest on record. Despite rumors that tariff exclusions would cool demand, physical gold demand continues to surge.
Silver Market Trends: A Different Story
Silver saw elevated but less dramatic delivery activity compared to gold. COMEX silver inventories, unlike gold, are increasing, and the open interest relative to available silver stock remains lower, meaning the silver market is more stable for now.
What This Means for Gold Investors
The COMEX data is sending clear warning signals:
•Demand for physical gold is rising fast.
•Available gold supplies may not keep up.
•Market stress is building, reflected in gold hitting multiple new all-time highs during April.
This isn’t business as usual. The physical gold market appears tighter than ever. Smart investors are paying attention — and positioning themselves accordingly.
Are you prepared? Do you have enough physical gold secured?
